While Adobe hasn’t released the official numbers, the latest Flash Player survey conducted in March 2007 shows Flash Player 9 penetration at 84.3%. Only three months ago Flash Player 9 was at a 56% penetration level in mature markets. This significant jump in market penetration is proof of just how quickly Adobe can roll out new versions of the player and reach critical market saturation very quickly.
A huge reason for this jump is the automatic update feature that Macromedia built into Flash Player 8. Flash Player 8 will periodically (by default I think it is every 30 days) check for a newer version of flash than flash 8 and download it if it exists. The jump might also be in part because MySpace now requires Flash Player 9 to view active content. MySpace, of course, does not account for the entire 84.3% of internet users, but it certainly has helped increase the spread of Flash 9. The level of market penetration is very close to the number that most developers wait for before they start developing in that new technology. When they do this, it’s going to mean big changes across the internet in the quality and performance of Rich Internet Applications. It will also bring more attention to Flex 2, which requires Flash Player 9. It all ends up being a huge lift for Adobe and makes it an even tougher battle for Microsoft as they work to release their version of Flash called Silverlite.
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